The first full trading week of 2026 is shaping up to be a mix of European inflation data, Australian CPI, and a classic U.S. macro‑heavy finale toward the end of the week. Markets are entering the new year with a mildly positive risk sentiment, a softening U.S. dollar, and stabilizing inflation across the eurozone.
Below is our expected sentiment for the major currency pairs.
🇪🇺🇺🇸 EURUSD — Expected Sentiment: +1 (slightly bullish for EUR)
Fundamental Outlook
Eurozone inflation is expected to continue stabilizing, reducing pressure on the ECB. Regional German CPI releases (Brandenburg, Saxony, Hesse, NRW) will likely confirm a slowdown in price dynamics.
The U.S. dollar may weaken as ISM, ADP, and NFP data point toward cooling labor and manufacturing conditions.
Technical Outlook
EURUSD is expected to maintain its upward structure. Key support sits at 1.0950, with resistance at 1.1100. A break above 1.1100 could open the path toward 1.1180.
Technical bias: slightly bullish
🇬🇧🇺🇸 GBPUSD — Expected Sentiment: −1 (slightly bearish for GBP)
Fundamental Outlook
UK inflation expectations remain elevated, keeping the Bank of England in a difficult position. GBP will be sensitive to risk‑off episodes, especially during U.S. macro releases.
Technical Outlook
GBPUSD is likely to remain range‑bound. Support lies at 1.2600, resistance at 1.2800. Upside attempts may be sold quickly; a break below 1.2600 could target 1.2520.
Technical bias: slightly bearish
🇺🇸🇯🇵 USDJPY — Expected Sentiment: +1 (bullish for USD, weak JPY)
Fundamental Outlook
The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its ultra‑dovish stance. JPY remains weak across the board, with no signs of imminent tightening.
Technical Outlook
USDJPY is likely to continue its upward trend. Support sits at 142.80, resistance at 145.00. A break above 145.00 could extend toward 146.20.
Technical bias: slightly bullish
🇺🇸🇨🇦 USDCAD — Expected Sentiment: 0 (neutral)
Fundamental Outlook
Canada will continue to benefit from stable PMI readings and commodity support. The USD may weaken, but CAD lacks the strength to form a clear directional trend.
Technical Outlook
USDCAD is expected to remain in a broad sideways range. Support at 1.3300, resistance at 1.3450. A breakout in either direction will likely define the next multi‑week trend.
Technical bias: neutral
🇦🇺🇺🇸 AUDUSD — Expected Sentiment: +1 (slightly bullish for AUD)
Fundamental Outlook
Australian inflation (Trimmed Mean, Weighted Median) is expected to remain stable. The trade balance should stay strong. A constructive global risk sentiment will support AUD.
Technical Outlook
AUDUSD is likely to maintain its upward structure. Support at 0.6750, resistance at 0.6900. A break above 0.6900 would confirm continuation of the trend.
Technical bias: slightly bullish
🇺🇸🇨🇭 USDCHF — Expected Sentiment: −1 (slightly bearish for USD)
Fundamental Outlook
CHF will benefit from safe‑haven flows, especially during U.S. macro volatility. The USD may come under pressure due to a softer labor market outlook.
Technical Outlook
USDCHF is expected to test key support levels. Support at 0.8450, resistance at 0.8600. A break below 0.8450 could extend toward 0.8380.
Technical bias: slightly bearish
🇪🇺🇨🇭 EURCHF — Expected Sentiment: +1 (slightly bullish for EUR)
Fundamental Outlook
The euro will benefit from stabilizing inflation and a softer USD. Swiss PMI remains below 50, slightly weakening CHF.
Technical Outlook
EURCHF is likely to continue its mild upward trend. Support at 0.9450, resistance at 0.9550. A break above 0.9550 would confirm continuation of the move.
Technical bias: slightly bullish
🇬🇧🇯🇵 GBPJPY — Expected Sentiment: +1 (slightly bullish for GBP against JPY)
GBP remains fundamentally mixed due to elevated inflation expectations and a cautious Bank of England. However, JPY continues to be structurally weak as the Bank of Japan maintains its ultra‑dovish stance with no signs of tightening. This creates an environment where GBPJPY may drift higher even if GBP itself is not particularly strong — simply because JPY is weaker.
Technical Outlook
GBPJPY maintains a mild upward bias within a broad rising structure. Key support sits at 182.50, with resistance at 184.80. A break above 184.80 could open the path toward 186.00, while a drop below 182.50 would weaken the bullish outlook.
Technical bias: slightly bullish
🇨🇦🇯🇵 CADJPY — Expected Sentiment: +1 (slightly bullish for CAD against JPY)
Fundamental Outlook
CAD remains supported by stable PMI readings and firm commodity prices, particularly oil. JPY continues to be structurally weak as the Bank of Japan maintains its ultra‑dovish stance with no signs of tightening. This combination favors a mild upside bias for CADJPY, even if CAD itself is not aggressively strong — JPY weakness dominates the pair.
Technical Outlook
CADJPY maintains a constructive upward structure. Key support sits at 109.20, with resistance at 110.80. A break above 110.80 could open the path toward 112.00, while a drop below 109.20 would weaken the bullish outlook.
Technical bias: slightly bullish
📌 Sentiment Summary (Outlook)
| Pair | Sentiment | Value |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | Bullish | +1 |
| GBPUSD | Bearish | −1 |
| USDJPY | Bullish | +1 |
| USDCAD | Neutral | 0 |
| AUDUSD | Bullish | +1 |
| USDCHF | Bearish | −1 |
| EURCHF | Bullish | +1 |
| GBPJPY | Bullish | +1 |
| CADJPY | Bullish | +1 |
🧭 Weekly Conclusion
The week of January 5–9, 2026 will likely be defined by:
a softening U.S. dollar
stabilizing eurozone inflation
a persistently weak JPY
a supported AUD
an uncertain GBP
a neutral CAD
Thursday and Friday will be classic high‑volatility U.S. macro days — Jobless Claims and NFP will dominate price action, creating conditions where our defconBlack protocol becomes essential for protecting open positions.