Markets enter the second week of January with elevated volatility and a mix of shifting macro themes. The U.S. dollar continues to weaken across most major pairs as systematic funds maintain broad USD selling, while the eurozone shows signs of stabilizing inflation and the UK delivers mixed economic data. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen remains under pressure ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting on January 23, where no rate hike is expected.
This week brings several high‑impact releases: US CPI, Core CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, Jobless Claims, ADP Weekly, along with UK GDP and Trade Balance. As a result, USD pairs are likely to experience sharp intraday swings, while EUR and GBP will respond more to regional dynamics.
Below is the updated sentiment outlook for the major pairs covered in last week’s analysis — now expanded with swing and intraday levels.
🇪🇺🇺🇸 EURUSD — Sentiment: +1 (Mildly Bullish EUR)
Fundamental Outlook
Eurozone inflation continues to stabilize, reducing pressure on the ECB.
The U.S. enters the week with expectations of softer inflation data and signs of cooling economic momentum.
Systematic investors (CTA) remain net sellers of USD, rotating into EUR, GBP, and AUD.
Overall, the macro backdrop favors gradual USD weakness.
Technical Outlook
EURUSD maintains a bullish structure above the 200‑day moving average.
A recent pullback from local highs remains contained above the key 1.1680 support.
As long as price holds above 1.1680, the pair retains a mild upward bias.
Swing Levels
Support: 1.1680, 1.1625
Resistance: 1.1785, 1.1840
Intraday Levels
Support: 1.1705, 1.1730
Resistance: 1.1760, 1.1790
🇬🇧🇺🇸 GBPUSD — Sentiment: 0 (Neutral to Slightly Bullish GBP)
Fundamental Outlook
UK data remains mixed:
Retail Sales YoY improved
GDP MoM stagnated
Trade Balance remains weak
A softer USD due to CPI/PPI could support GBPUSD.
Overall: GBP has a slight advantage, but not enough for a strong directional trend.
Technical Outlook
GBPUSD trades above the 200‑day moving average.
The pair remains in a broad consolidation, but structure stays constructive above 1.2550.
Swing Levels
Support: 1.2550, 1.2480
Resistance: 1.2720, 1.2810
Intraday Levels
Support: 1.2590, 1.2625
Resistance: 1.2680, 1.2710
🇺🇸🇯🇵 USDJPY — Sentiment: +1 (Mildly Bullish USD)
Fundamental Outlook
JPY remains weak ahead of the January 23 BoJ meeting, where no policy tightening is expected.
Markets expect BoJ normalization later in the year, not now.
Unless US inflation drops sharply, USDJPY may continue to grind higher.
Technical Outlook
USDJPY holds a bullish structure with elevated volatility.
Key resistance sits at 149.80; support at 146.20.
A break above 150 would open the door toward 152.
Swing Levels
Support: 146.20, 144.80
Resistance: 149.80, 152.00
Intraday Levels
Support: 147.10, 147.60
Resistance: 148.80, 149.30
🇺🇸🇨🇦 USDCAD — Sentiment: –1 (Mildly Bearish USD)
Fundamental Outlook
CAD benefits from:
higher oil prices
broad USD weakness
If US inflation disappoints, USDCAD could extend lower.
Technical Outlook
USDCAD trades below the 200‑day moving average.
Trend remains bearish while price stays under 1.3350.
Swing Levels
Support: 1.3180, 1.3100
Resistance: 1.3350, 1.3420
Intraday Levels
Support: 1.3220, 1.3195
Resistance: 1.3290, 1.3320
🇺🇸🇨🇭 USDCHF — Sentiment: –1 (Bearish USD)
Fundamental Outlook
USDCHF remains one of the weakest USD pairs as markets continue systematic USD selling.
CHF benefits from safe‑haven flows.
Technical Outlook
USDCHF trades below the 200‑day moving average in a clean downtrend.
Support sits at 0.8330; resistance at 0.8550.
Swing Levels
Support: 0.8330, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8550, 0.8620
Intraday Levels
Support: 0.8380, 0.8350
Resistance: 0.8470, 0.8510
🇦🇺🇺🇸 AUDUSD — Sentiment: +1 (Mildly Bullish AUD)
Fundamental Outlook
Australian consumer confidence remains weak, but AUD benefits from global risk‑on sentiment.
USD softness provides additional support.
Technical Outlook
AUDUSD trades above the 200‑day moving average.
Trend remains mildly bullish while price holds above 0.6650.
Swing Levels
Support: 0.6650, 0.6580
Resistance: 0.6780, 0.6850
Intraday Levels
Support: 0.6685, 0.6710
Resistance: 0.6750, 0.6775
🇨🇦🇯🇵 CADJPY — Sentiment: +1 (Mildly Bullish CAD)
Fundamental Analysis
CAD continues to benefit from higher oil prices and broad USD weakness spilling over into cross‑JPY flows.
The Japanese yen remains under pressure ahead of the January 23 BoJ meeting, where no rate hike or policy tightening is expected.
Markets still anticipate BoJ normalization later in the year, not in January, which keeps JPY fundamentally weak.
If global sentiment stays in risk‑on mode, CADJPY has room to extend higher.
Overall: CAD has the fundamental advantage, while JPY remains structurally weak — resulting in a mildly bullish bias.
Technical Analysis
CADJPY maintains a steady uptrend above the 200‑day moving average.
Price action remains in the upper portion of the structure, forming higher swing lows.
Key resistance sits near 113.80; a breakout would expose the 115.00 handle.
Support at 111.20 remains the key level protecting the bullish structure.
Swing Levels
Support: 111.20, 110.40
Resistance: 113.80, 115.00
Intraday Levels
Support: 112.10, 112.40
Resistance: 113.20, 113.60
📌 Sentiment & Levels Summary
| Pair | Sentiment | Swing Bias | Intraday Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | +1 | Bullish above 1.1680 | Bullish above 1.1730 |
| GBPUSD | 0 | Neutral / Slightly Bullish | Range 1.2590–1.2710 |
| USDJPY | +1 | Bullish above 146.20 | Bullish above 147.60 |
| USDCAD | –1 | Bearish below 1.3350 | Bearish below 1.3290 |
| USDCHF | –1 | Bearish below 0.8550 | Bearish below 0.8470 |
| AUDUSD | +1 | Bullish above 0.6650 | Bullish above 0.6710 | CADJPY | +1 | Bullish above 111.20 | Bullish above 112.10 |
📘 Overall Conclusion
Markets head into the second week of January with a blend of elevated volatility and gradually forming medium‑term trends. The weakening U.S. dollar remains the dominant theme, but its trajectory will depend heavily on this week’s inflation data (CPI, Core CPI, PPI) and how markets interpret the results.
European currencies — particularly EUR and GBP — benefit from regional stability, while commodity currencies (AUD, CAD) respond to global risk sentiment and energy prices. The Japanese yen remains under pressure ahead of the BoJ meeting, keeping USDJPY tilted to the upside.
Technically, most major pairs continue to respect key swing levels and trade above their 200‑day moving averages, supporting a mildly bullish bias on EURUSD, GBPUSD, and AUDUSD. Conversely, USDCHF and USDCAD remain under pressure, reinforcing the broader theme of USD softness.
Overall, this is likely to be a week dominated by short‑term reactions to macro releases, while the medium‑term outlook still leans toward gradual USD depreciation, unless U.S. inflation surprises significantly to the upside. The swing and intraday levels provided in this analysis offer clear reference points for risk management and trade planning.