Introduction
After a calmer start to February, we’re heading into a week that can significantly move the markets. The United States delivers a full macro arsenal: Retail Sales, NFP, Jobless Claims, and CPI. The United Kingdom releases its GDP block on Thursday, and the eurozone ends the week with employment data and two ECB speeches.
Markets will be highly sensitive to US numbers — especially Wednesday’s NFP and Friday’s inflation. Below is the sentiment and technical structure for the major FX pairs.
🇪🇺🇺🇸 EURUSD — Sentiment: –1 (Mildly Bearish for EUR)
Fundamental Outlook
The euro faces a light macro week (employment data + two ECB speeches). The dollar, on the other hand, receives the strongest data combination of the month:
Retail Sales (Tuesday)
NFP (Wednesday)
Jobless Claims (Thursday)
CPI + Core CPI (Friday)
If US data confirms strong consumer activity and a tight labor market, EURUSD will remain under pressure. ECB communication continues to lean dovish, which doesn’t help the euro’s sentiment.
Technical Outlook
The structure remains weak below 1.0900. Every rally is still treated as a selling opportunity.
Swing support: 1.0830, 1.0780
Swing resistance: 1.0940, 1.0990
Intraday support: 1.0860, 1.0840
Intraday resistance: 1.0915, 1.0935
🇬🇧🇺🇸 GBPUSD — Sentiment: 0 (Neutral)
Fundamental Outlook
The pound has one major event:
Thursday 09:00 – Full GDP set (QoQ, YoY, MoM)
This release can shift direction short‑term, but outside of it GBPUSD will be driven primarily by US macro. Unless GDP surprises significantly to the upside, GBP remains neutral to slightly soft.
Technical Outlook
The structure is stable above 1.2550 but lacks a clear trend. The pair will react more to US data than to UK numbers.
Swing support: 1.2550, 1.2480
Swing resistance: 1.2670, 1.2730
Intraday support: 1.2585, 1.2560
Intraday resistance: 1.2640, 1.2665
🇺🇸🇯🇵 USDJPY — Sentiment: +2 (Strong Long)
Fundamental Outlook
JPY has no meaningful data this week. USD, however, brings the biggest macro week of the month:
Retail Sales
NFP
CPI
This is an ideal environment for USDJPY. Risk sentiment is stable, yields are rising, and JPY remains fundamentally weak.
Technical Outlook
The structure is strongly bullish above 149.50. Every pullback continues to be bought.
Swing support: 149.50, 148.80
Swing resistance: 151.20, 152.00
Intraday support: 150.10, 149.85
Intraday resistance: 150.90, 151.30
🇬🇧🇯🇵 GBPJPY — Sentiment: +1 (Mildly Bullish)
Fundamental Outlook
GBP has Thursday’s GDP block, JPY has nothing. The pair will be driven by:
USD volatility (via JPY)
UK GDP
overall risk sentiment
If UK data doesn’t disappoint, GBPJPY has room to move higher.
Technical Outlook
The structure is constructive above 188.00. Expect elevated volatility due to US macro releases.
Swing support: 188.00, 187.20
Swing resistance: 190.40, 191.30
Intraday support: 188.60, 188.20
Intraday resistance: 189.80, 190.20
🇦🇺🇺🇸 AUDUSD — Sentiment: 0 (Neutral)
Fundamental Outlook
AUD has only light early‑session data (Westpac, NAB). The main driver will be USD. If US numbers come in strong, AUDUSD will be pressured; otherwise, it stays range‑bound.
Technical Outlook
The structure is neutral between 0.6500–0.6620.
Swing support: 0.6500, 0.6460
Swing resistance: 0.6620, 0.6670
Intraday support: 0.6535, 0.6515
Intraday resistance: 0.6580, 0.6605
🇪🇺🇬🇧 EURGBP — Sentiment: –1 (Bearish for EUR)
Fundamental Outlook
GBP has a strong Thursday GDP block. EUR has only employment data and ECB speeches. This gives the pound a slight advantage.
Technical Outlook
The structure remains weak below 0.8550.
Swing support: 0.8480, 0.8450
Swing resistance: 0.8550, 0.8590
Intraday support: 0.8505, 0.8490
Intraday resistance: 0.8530, 0.8545
🇺🇸🇨🇦 USDCAD — Sentiment: +1 (Mildly Bullish for USD)
Fundamental Outlook
CAD has almost no meaningful data this week, so USDCAD will be driven almost entirely by US macro:
Retail Sales (Tuesday)
NFP (Wednesday)
Jobless Claims (Thursday)
CPI (Friday)
Oil remains stable, offering no real support for CAD. If US data confirms strong consumption and sticky inflation, USDCAD has room to move higher.
Technical Outlook
The structure is constructive above 1.3450. Pullbacks continue to be bought.
Swing support: 1.3450, 1.3380
Swing resistance: 1.3580, 1.3640
Intraday support: 1.3485, 1.3460
Intraday resistance: 1.3540, 1.3565
🇨🇦🇯🇵 CADJPY — Sentiment: –1 (Mildly Bearish for CAD)
Fundamental Outlook
CAD has no major data this week. JPY is weak, but CADJPY is a notoriously noisy pair that often reacts more to oil than macro. Stable oil + strong USD (via JPY) = mild pressure on CADJPY.
If risk sentiment stays neutral, CADJPY may drift lower.
Technical Outlook
The structure is soft below 112.00. The pair is prone to false breakouts, so caution is warranted.
Swing support: 110.80, 110.20
Swing resistance: 112.00, 112.70
Intraday support: 111.20, 110.95
Intraday resistance: 111.85, 112.10
🇦🇺🇯🇵 AUDJPY — Sentiment: +1 (Mildly Bullish)
Fundamental Outlook
AUD has light early‑session data (Westpac, NAB), JPY has nothing. AUDJPY will be driven by:
risk sentiment
USD volatility (via JPY)
commodity dynamics
If markets remain stable, AUDJPY has upside potential.
Technical Outlook
The structure is bullish above 97.00. The pair tends to follow USDJPY, but with less momentum.
Swing support: 97.00, 96.40
Swing resistance: 98.60, 99.20
Intraday support: 97.35, 97.10
Intraday resistance: 98.10, 98.35
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Conclusion
This week is all about the US dollar. USD has the strongest macro combination in February and will dictate direction across most pairs. GBP awaits Thursday’s GDP, EUR remains soft, and JPY will mostly react to US data.
For intraday systems, this means:
elevated volatility
clean post‑data directional moves
strict discipline around red‑level events
Markets will be especially sensitive to Wednesday’s NFP and Friday’s CPI.