Markets enter the week of January 19–23, 2026 with a familiar mix of themes: a structurally weaker U.S. dollar, renewed focus on inflation dynamics in Europe and the UK, and heightened attention on central bank signaling from the Bank of Japan and the Bank of Canada.
This week’s macro calendar is dense but well‑structured:
EUR: December CPI
GBP: Employment data and December inflation
CAD: CPI and Retail Sales
JPY: Inflation and the BoJ rate decision
USD: GDP, Jobless Claims, PCE, and Michigan Sentiment
As a result, major pairs are likely to trade in a regime where USD weakness remains the core narrative, but local stories in GBP, CAD, and JPY may temporarily dominate price action. Below is the updated weekly sentiment outlook for the same set of pairs as last week, including revised swing and intraday levels.
🇪🇺🇺🇸 EURUSD — Sentiment: +1 (Mildly Bullish EUR)
Fundamental outlook
The eurozone releases December CPI this week, which will help confirm whether the disinflation trend is stabilizing. On the U.S. side, Thursday’s data cluster (GDP, PCE, Jobless Claims) and Friday’s Michigan Sentiment will shape short‑term USD direction. Unless U.S. inflation surprises to the upside, the broader narrative of a softening dollar remains intact.
Technical outlook
EURUSD continues to trade above the 200‑day moving average, maintaining a constructive bullish structure. Pullbacks remain controlled, and buyers defend key swing levels.
Swing support: 1.1680, 1.1625
Swing resistance: 1.1785, 1.1840
Intraday support: 1.1705, 1.1730
Intraday resistance: 1.1760, 1.1790
🇬🇧🇺🇸 GBPUSD — Sentiment: 0 (Neutral / Slightly Bullish GBP)
Fundamental outlook
The UK releases Employment data on Tuesday and December CPI on Wednesday, both of which can significantly influence BoE expectations. If inflation remains sticky and the labor market doesn’t deteriorate sharply, GBP retains a modest advantage. USD volatility will be driven by Thursday’s macro cluster and Friday’s sentiment data. Overall, the pair remains range‑bound with a slight bullish tilt.
Technical outlook
GBPUSD trades above the 200‑day moving average but remains in a broad consolidation. The structure stays constructive as long as price holds above 1.2550.
Swing support: 1.2550, 1.2480
Swing resistance: 1.2720, 1.2810
Intraday support: 1.2590, 1.2625
Intraday resistance: 1.2680, 1.2710
🇺🇸🇯🇵 USDJPY — Sentiment: +1 (Mildly Bullish USD)
Fundamental outlook
Japan releases inflation data ahead of Friday’s BoJ rate decision, where markets still expect no tightening. This keeps JPY structurally weak unless the BoJ surprises with a hawkish tone. If U.S. data doesn’t show dramatic slowing, USDJPY may continue grinding higher, though volatility around BoJ remains a risk.
Technical outlook
USDJPY maintains a bullish structure with buyers defending key levels. A break above 149.80 would open the path toward 152.00.
Swing support: 146.20, 144.80
Swing resistance: 149.80, 152.00
Intraday support: 147.10, 147.60
Intraday resistance: 148.80, 149.30
🇺🇸🇨🇦 USDCAD — Sentiment: −1 (Mildly Bearish USD)
Fundamental outlook
Canada releases CPI on Monday and Retail Sales on Friday. If inflation stays near expectations and retail activity holds up, CAD should remain supported. With USD still under broad pressure, USDCAD remains a candidate for sell‑on‑rally, unless U.S. data significantly surprises to the upside.
Technical outlook
USDCAD trades below the 200‑day moving average, maintaining a bearish trend as long as price stays under 1.3350.
Swing support: 1.3180, 1.3100
Swing resistance: 1.3350, 1.3420
Intraday support: 1.3220, 1.3195
Intraday resistance: 1.3290, 1.3320
🇺🇸🇨🇭 USDCHF — Sentiment: −1 (Bearish USD)
Fundamental outlook
USDCHF remains one of the weakest USD pairs, pressured by broad USD selling and safe‑haven flows into CHF. U.S. data may create short‑term volatility, but the medium‑term bias remains bearish unless the inflation narrative shifts.
Technical outlook
The pair trades below the 200‑day moving average in a clean downtrend. Any rallies toward 0.8550–0.8620 may attract renewed selling.
Swing support: 0.8330, 0.8250
Swing resistance: 0.8550, 0.8620
Intraday support: 0.8380, 0.8350
Intraday resistance: 0.8470, 0.8510
🇦🇺🇺🇸 AUDUSD — Sentiment: +1 (Mildly Bullish AUD)
Fundamental outlook
Australia releases Employment data on Thursday. Despite softer domestic consumption, AUD benefits from global risk‑on sentiment and a weaker USD. Unless employment data disappoints sharply, AUDUSD should maintain a mild bullish bias.
Technical outlook
AUDUSD trades above the 200‑day moving average, with buyers defending the 0.6650 region.
Swing support: 0.6650, 0.6580
Swing resistance: 0.6780, 0.6850
Intraday support: 0.6685, 0.6710
Intraday resistance: 0.6750, 0.6775
🇬🇧🇯🇵 GBPJPY — Sentiment: +1 (Mildly Bullish GBP, Weak JPY)
Fundamental outlook
The UK’s Employment and CPI releases give GBP a potential edge this week. JPY remains under pressure ahead of Friday’s BoJ decision, where no tightening is expected. Unless BoJ surprises, GBPJPY retains a bullish bias with volatility risk around the announcement.
Technical outlook
GBPJPY maintains a bullish structure above the 200‑day moving average. As long as price holds above 183.50, buyers remain in control.
Swing support: 183.50, 181.80
Swing resistance: 187.20, 188.60
Intraday support: 184.40, 185.10
Intraday resistance: 186.30, 187.00
🇨🇦🇯🇵 CADJPY — Sentiment: +1 (Bullish CAD, Weak JPY)
Fundamental outlook
Canada’s CPI and Retail Sales provide the key drivers for CAD this week. With JPY still structurally weak ahead of BoJ, CADJPY has room to extend higher unless Canadian data significantly disappoints.
Technical outlook
CADJPY remains in an uptrend, with buyers defending the 108.20 area. A break above 110.50 would open the path toward 112.00.
Swing support: 108.20, 107.40
Swing resistance: 110.50, 112.00
Intraday support: 108.90, 109.30
Intraday resistance: 110.10, 110.45
Summary Table
| Pair | Sentiment | Swing Bias | Intraday Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | +1 | Bullish above 1.1680 | Bullish above 1.1730 |
| GBPUSD | 0 | Neutral / Slightly Bullish | Range 1.2590–1.2710 |
| USDJPY | +1 | Bullish above 146.20 | Bullish above 147.60 |
| USDCAD | −1 | Bearish below 1.3350 | Bearish below 1.3290 |
| USDCHF | −1 | Bearish below 0.8550 | Bearish below 0.8470 |
| AUDUSD | +1 | Bullish above 0.6650 | Bullish above 0.6710 |
| GBPJPY | +1 | Bullish above 183.50 | Bullish above 185.10 |
| CADJPY | +1 | Bullish above 108.20 | Bullish above 109.30 |
Conclusion
The week of January 19–23, 2026 is shaped by a combination of USD softness and localized fundamental drivers in GBP, CAD, and JPY. Unless U.S. inflation or growth data surprises significantly, the broader trend of a weakening dollar remains intact. GBP and CAD benefit from domestic data releases, while JPY stays vulnerable ahead of the BoJ decision.
Most major pairs continue to respect their long‑term technical structures, with EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, GBPJPY, and CADJPY maintaining bullish tendencies, while USDCAD and USDCHF remain under pressure.